Research

I use my background in ecology and evolution to understand how complex host-pathogen interactions drive disease dynamics, and I use biostatistics and mathematical models to quantify emerging epidemics and inform public health interventions.

  • COVID-19: New Strains, Old Immunity

    Existing models of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics assume a simple immune landscape; i.e., that hosts have either no immunity or full immunity against infection by the virus. This assumption becomes increasingly inaccurate as the COVID-19 pandemic wears on, particularly as the virus continues to evolve and people gain immunity from multiple different sources. Our work incorporates immune waning rate, variant-specific immunity and cross-immunity, and vaccination to more accurately predict SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in 2023 and beyond.

  • The impacts of the U.S. cattle transportation network on the spread of Avian Influenza in dairy cows

    A new variant of Avian Influenza arose in dairy cattle in the U.S. in March 2024. The virus has since spread throughout cattle in the U.S. in rapid and unpredictable leaps. We believe interstate cattle transportation is the leading driver of Avian Influenza transmission among North American dairy cows, and we are using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo model to reconstruct cattle trade communities and model the efficacy of different interventions that could be used to slow the spread of disease in the future.

  • Preventing the evolution of human-infective HPAI through seasonal flu vaccination strategies

    Highly Pathogenic Avian influenza (HPAI) has high pandemic potential. It is currently circulating in non-human animals with sporadic animal-to-human transmission, but it can rapidly acquire the ability to transmit human-to-human if it recombines with pre-existing human influenza (H1N1, H3N2) when co-infecting the same human host. The purpose of this project is to model how vaccination for H1N1 and H3N2 can lower the likelihood of co-infection, therefore Human Pandemic HPAI. We also highlight how investing public health resources in (often undocumented and under-served) farm worker communities benefits all people.